The National Weather Service’s current prediction is for a wetter-than-normal winter for the region. Stock photo

For the Star Journal

The National Weather Service has revised how it will notify the public of cold weather this winter. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service says it is “simplifying a suite of cold weather forecasts products to improve messaging of winter hazards and provide better decision support.”

The revisions are part of what NOAA is calling its Hazard Simplification initiative, which integrates public and partner engagements and social science research to improve and evolve the alerting system.

NOAA says the changes seek to clarify that cold can be dangerous with or without wind, addressing a common misconception that extreme cold is only tied to colder temperatures when there is wind. Dangerously cold weather can accompany or follow wintry precipitation and the cold messaging can be overshadowed by the wintry precipitation.

Put into effect Oct. 1 are changes regarding extreme cold and freeze conditions.

-Wind chill watches are now renamed as an Extreme Cold Watch: Issued when dangerously cold air, with or without wind is POSSIBLE. Check the forecast and BE PREPARED in case a warning is issued.

-Wind chill warnings are now an Extreme Cold Warning: Issued when dangerously cold air, with or without wind, is EXPECTED. Conditions could lead to frostbite or hypothermia. Limit time outside, dress in layers and cover up exposed skin. TAKE ACTION.

-Wind chill advisories have been renamed as Cold Weather Advisories

-Hard freeze watches are called Freeze Watches

-Hard freeze warnings have been consolidated to a Freeze Warning

NOAA’s winter weather prediction

The winter outlook released by the Climate Prediction Center, a division of NOAA’s National Weather Service, expects a slowly-developing La Nina will influence conditions for most of the country. La Nina conditions typically lead to a more northerly storm track during winter months.

That means NOAA predicts a wetter-than-average conditions for the entire northern tier of the continental U.S., particularly the Pacific Northwest and Great Lakes region – including Wisconsin – and northern and western Alaska. Predictions for the Northern two-thirds of Wisconsin are for a 40-50% chance of above normal temperatures December through February.

 “In September, we announced a $100 million investment into NOAA’s high-performance computer system to advance research on weather, climate and ocean predictions because understanding our climate system is essential for making longer-term predictions like the Winter Seasonal Outlook, which provides vital information for many of our partners and the public,” said Michael Morgan, Ph.D., NOAA’s assistant secretary of commerce for observation and prediction. “We continue to innovate in this space, developing new ways to share winter forecast information with the public.”

As far as temperature predictions, Wisconsin is in a section of the country that has “equal chances of below-, near-, or above-average season mean temperatures.” The next Climate Prediction Center update will be available Nov. 21.

NOAA notes it does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations because snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance. For more information, visit noaa.gov.